The New START treaty, the last major agreement limiting nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia, officially expired on February 5, 2026. Signed in 2010 and extended once in 2021, the treaty capped each country at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads on no more than 700 missiles, bombers, and submarines. It also allowed mutual inspections to ensure both sides followed the rules.

For the first time since the 1970s, there are now no binding legal limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. President Trump rejected Russia’s proposal for a voluntary one-year extension. In a Truth Social post, he called the original treaty “badly negotiated” and “grossly violated,” and directed US nuclear experts to begin work on a new, improved, and modernized agreement.

The United States insists any new treaty must include China. Beijing’s nuclear arsenal is growing rapidly and remains outside any arms control framework. US officials say China has around 600 warheads now and is on track to reach 1,000 by 2030, with new silo fields, road-mobile launchers, and submarines. The US has accused China of secret nuclear tests, including preparations for higher-yield explosions, though China denies these claims. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated clearly that unilateral restraint by the US is not viable while others expand.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking at an OSCE summit in Vienna, described the expiry as creating a “vacuum” in arms control. He said Russia remains open to dialogue but is preparing for any scenario. China, however, has firmly rejected joining trilateral talks. Beijing argues it is “fundamentally unfair” to demand reductions from a country still developing its deterrent while the US and Russia hold thousands of warheads each.

The absence of limits raises serious concerns. Experts warn of a potential new arms race, increased risk of miscalculation, and higher global insecurity. For Africa, this instability could drive up defense spending by major powers, reduce aid availability, and make energy markets more volatile. Oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions involving Russia and others, directly affect fuel costs, transport fares, and food prices across the continent.

A successful new treaty could bring predictability and redirect resources toward shared challenges like climate adaptation and development. The UN Secretary-General called the expiry “a grave moment for international peace and security.” Without agreed rules, the consequences—economic, environmental, and human—would be felt far beyond the major powers, including here in Africa.